Project SherlockEst. Knowledge

Paper

1978

Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the Slow Progress of Soft Psychology

Paul E. Meehl

Argues that null-hypothesis significance testing lets weak, vague theories in 'soft' areas of psychology look like they are accumulating support decade after decade, because almost any predicted direction of effect is enough to count as confirmation.

Before you start

FreeAdvancedlink checked 17 Sept 2026

Read these first

Not a difficulty warning — a route. These are in the library too.

Statistical Methods for Research WorkersRonald A. Fisher, 1925Lays out the statistical tools - significance testing, analysis of variance, the design of experiments - that became the working method of experimental psychology and every other quantitative science that followed it.

If this is the wrong level

Too hard? Start hereThe Earth Is Round (p < .05)Jacob Cohen, 1994Argues null-hypothesis significance testing does not tell researchers what they think it does - it cannot say how probable a hypothesis is - and that psychology's near-total reliance on it has done the field lasting damage.

Filed under Research Methods & the Replication Crisis in Psychology.