Low-probability, high-consequence events and how to plan for them.
10 topics · 11 curated works
No prior grounding assumed.
Surviving a Tsunami: Lessons from Chile, Hawaii, and Japan
Atwater et al. · 1999
Draws on survivor accounts and post-event surveys from Chile, Hawaii and Japan to set out what actually determines whether someone survives a…
+1 more at this level
Assumes you know the vocabulary.
Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention
The World Bank & United Nations · 2010
Argues that disaster losses keep rising because prevention is systematically under-invested relative to relief, and shows with case studies that…
Primary sources and full treatments.
Frequency of Earthquakes in California
Beno Gutenberg & Charles F. Richter · 1944
Shows that the number of earthquakes above a given magnitude falls off exponentially with magnitude in a fixed ratio, the Gutenberg-Richter law that…
+7 more at this level
11 works
Atwater et al.
Draws on survivor accounts and post-event surveys from Chile, Hawaii and Japan to set out what actually determines whether someone survives a tsunami, from wave arrival time to evacuation behaviour.
link checked 17 Sept 2026United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
Argues that human systems now systemically underestimate and mismanage disaster risk, turning what could be manageable hazards into runaway disasters, and sets out how risk governance needs to change.
link failing as of 17 Sept 2026The World Bank & United Nations
Argues that disaster losses keep rising because prevention is systematically under-invested relative to relief, and shows with case studies that cost-effective prevention is usually available but politically unrewarding to fund.
link checked 17 Sept 2026Beno Gutenberg & Charles F. Richter
Shows that the number of earthquakes above a given magnitude falls off exponentially with magnitude in a fixed ratio, the Gutenberg-Richter law that underlies every modern seismic hazard estimate.
link checked 17 Sept 2026Tate Dalrymple
Sets out the USGS method for estimating how often a flood of a given size will recur at a gauged or ungauged site, the manual-of-practice basis for floodplain maps used across the United States for decades.
link checked 17 Sept 2026Kinjiro Kajiura
Derives how a tsunami's leading wave transforms as it crosses from deep ocean to shallow coastal water, the theoretical basis for early tsunami warning calculations.
Wayne C. Palmer
Builds a water-balance index from precipitation and temperature that compares drought severity across regions and time periods on a common scale, still issued today as the Palmer Drought Severity Index.
link checked 17 Sept 2026Richard C. Rothermel
Derives a mathematical model relating fuel moisture, wind and slope to the rate a wildfire spreads, the equation still underlying operational fire-behaviour prediction.
link failing as of 17 Sept 2026Robert L. Schuster & Raymond J. Krizek
Assembles field investigation, laboratory testing and slope-stability analysis into a single practical reference, including Varnes's classification of landslide types that is still the standard vocabulary of the field.
link checked 17 Sept 2026Kerry A. Emanuel
Models a mature hurricane as a heat engine running on the temperature difference between warm sea surface and cold upper atmosphere, and derives from it the theoretical maximum intensity a storm can reach.
link failing as of 17 Sept 2026Dennis S. Mileti
Reassesses decades of U.S. hazards policy and argues that sustainable hazard mitigation requires building resilience into land use and development decisions, not just stronger engineering after the fact.
link checked 17 Sept 2026