One work, chosen by chance

Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate

Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara Mellers, Nick Rohrbaugh & Eva Chen

Argues that scoring forecasters against each other on the same questions, rather than letting pundits make unfalsifiable claims, is what turns punditry into a measurable skill and reveals which methods of aggregating judgement actually work.