Thinking & Personal Effectiveness
Probabilistic Thinking & Forecasting
Reasoning in probabilities rather than certainties.
8 topics · 1 curated work
Topics
Curated reading
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No prior grounding assumed.
- BookSuperforecastingPhilip Tetlock & Dan Gardner, 2015
Forecasting is a trainable skill: break problems down, use base rates, update in small increments, and keep score.
Also covered elsewhere
This subject genuinely sits in more than one domain. These fields approach the same ground with different methods.