Paper2014
Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
Barbara Mellers, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron, Jaime Ramos, Burcu Gurcay, Katrina Fincher, Sydney E. Scott, Don Moore, Pavel Atanasov, Samuel A. Swift, Terry Murray, Eric Stone & Philip E. Tetlock
In a multi-year geopolitical forecasting tournament, the best-calibrated forecasters were not the most expert but the ones trained in probabilistic reasoning, working in teams, and tracked for accuracy over time - the ingredients of a trainable skill rather than a fixed trait.
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