Project Sherlock

Thinking & Personal Effectiveness

Mental Models & Frameworks

Portable structures for thinking about unfamiliar problems.

13 topics · 13 curated works

Topics

  • 01Foundations & Overviews1
  • 02First Principles Reasoning1
  • 03Inversion1
  • 04Systems Thinking1
  • 05Feedback Loops1
  • 06Incentives1
  • 07Pareto Principle1
  • 08Compounding1
  • 09Margin of Safety1
  • 10Signal vs Noise1
  • 11Map & Territory1
  • 12Lindy Effect1
  • 13Occam's Razor1

Reading in Mental Models & Frameworks

13

A way in

  1. Start here

    No prior grounding assumed.

    Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis

    Albert A. Bartlett · 1978

    Uses nothing but the arithmetic of steady percentage growth to show that any fixed growth rate has a fixed doubling time, and argues that…

  2. Then

    Assumes you know the vocabulary.

    How to Make Our Ideas Clear

    Charles Sanders Peirce · 1878

    Proposes that the entire meaning of a concept lies in the practical, testable effects we conceive it to have, and offers this 'pragmatic maxim' as a…

    +5 more at this level

  3. Go deeper

    Primary sources and full treatments.

    Science and Sanity

    Alfred Korzybski · 1933

    Argues that most human conflict and confusion stems from confusing a description of reality with reality itself, and proposes 'the map is not the…

    +5 more at this level

12 of 13 works

Paper1986

Defensive Pessimism: Harnessing Anxiety as Motivation

Julie K. Norem & Nancy Cantor

Finds that people who deliberately set low expectations and mentally rehearse everything that could go wrong before a stressful task use the resulting anxiety productively and perform as well as optimists, rather than being undermined by pessimism as expected.

Paper2000

A Fine Is a Price

Uri Gneezy & Aldo Rustichini

A field experiment at daycare centres finds that introducing a modest fine for picking children up late increased the rate of late pickups rather than reducing it, arguing that a price reframes a social obligation as a market transaction and removes the guilt that previously did the deterring.

link checked 17 Sept 2026
Book1933

Science and Sanity

Alfred Korzybski

Argues that most human conflict and confusion stems from confusing a description of reality with reality itself, and proposes 'the map is not the territory' as a discipline for remembering that any word, model or theory is always an abstraction from what it represents.

Paper1979

The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making

Robyn M. Dawes

Shows that crude linear models built from a handful of variables and even arbitrary weights routinely out-predict trained human judges, and argues experts lose to simple models not from lack of knowledge but because they inconsistently apply it — adding noise a fixed formula cannot.

Paper2005

Power Laws, Pareto Distributions and Zipf's Law

M. E. J. Newman

Surveys the handful of simple mechanisms — preferential attachment, multiplicative growth, combinations of exponentials — that generate power-law and Pareto-shaped distributions across systems as different as city sizes and word frequencies, and argues the same shape recurring everywhere is not itself evidence of one common cause.

link checked 17 Sept 2026

In order written

1878 – 2023
  1. 1878How to Make Our Ideas ClearCharles Sanders Peirce
  2. 1933Science and SanityAlfred Korzybski
  3. 1945How to Solve ItGeorge Polya
  4. 1979The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision MakingRobyn M. Dawes
  5. 1986Defensive Pessimism: Harnessing Anxiety as MotivationJulie K. Norem & Nancy Cantor
  6. 2000A Fine Is a PriceUri Gneezy & Aldo Rustichini
  7. 2020Safety-Critical Protective Systems and Margins of SafetyMartin Wortman, Ernest Kee & Pranav Kannan
  8. 2023The Lindy EffectToby Ord

Elsewhere in Thinking & Personal Effectiveness