Thinking & Personal Effectiveness · Probabilistic Thinking & Forecasting
A topic within Probabilistic Thinking & Forecasting, itself one of 9 topics in that field and part of Thinking & Personal Effectiveness.
2 works
Sherman Kent
Shows that vague verbal hedges like 'serious possibility' are read by different people as covering wildly different numeric ranges, and proposes a fixed scale of words tied to specific probability bands instead.
link checked 17 Sept 2026Sarah Lichtenstein & Baruch Fischhoff
Finds that immediate feedback on whether stated confidence matched outcomes improved calibration substantially within a single training session, while feedback without the outcome comparison did not.