Thinking & Personal Effectiveness · Probabilistic Thinking & Forecasting
A topic within Probabilistic Thinking & Forecasting, itself one of 9 topics in that field and part of Thinking & Personal Effectiveness.
2 works
Bent Flyvbjerg
Applies Kahneman and Tversky's planning-fallacy research to argue that project forecasts should be built from the outcome distribution of a reference class of similar past projects, not from the details of the project at hand.
link checked 17 Sept 2026Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky
Argues that forecasters should set aside the specific details of a case, the inside view, and instead anchor on the outcome distribution of a class of similar cases, the outside view, because the inside view systematically produces overconfident forecasts.
link failing as of 17 Sept 2026