Thinking & Personal Effectiveness · Probabilistic Thinking & Forecasting
Handling Black Swans
A topic within Probabilistic Thinking & Forecasting, itself one of 8 topics in that field and part of Thinking & Personal Effectiveness.
Reading for Probabilistic Thinking & Forecasting
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No prior grounding assumed.
- BookSuperforecastingPhilip Tetlock & Dan Gardner, 2015
Forecasting is a trainable skill: break problems down, use base rates, update in small increments, and keep score.