Paper2014
Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate
Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara Mellers, Nick Rohrbaugh & Eva Chen
Argues that scoring forecasters against each other on the same questions, rather than letting pundits make unfalsifiable claims, is what turns punditry into a measurable skill and reveals which methods of aggregating judgement actually work.
link checked 17 Sept 2026